German Economic Review in 2001 and 2002 Trend Anal

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German Economic Review 2001, Policy Trend Analysis to 2002

【Summary】: the end of 2001, German economy has actually entered a mild recession. Decline caused by many reasons: aging, external shocks and periodic transmission are the three main reasons. Determine the next trend has both optimism and pessimism. Optimists estimate that a rebound after the second quarter of this year; pessimistic view is that the economy is still low during the wandering. Looking at various factors, changes in the international environment is not around or even anti-German under its system, but the German government economic policy in the short term adjustment in optimizing the structure and institutional reforms is a variable that can not be ignored. In addition, this year is election year in Germany, this factor has become the de direction of current economic policy can appear as an important prerequisite for turning. Chinese papers League finishing. One, the economy entered a mild recession 2001, the German general economic conditions since the 1994 recession year. Macroeconomic indicators not only of the obvious contrast with last year, and the economic growth rate is the lowest in almost 8 years for one year. According to the quarterly economic situation last year, see last year's four quarters of annualized growth of 1.6%, respectively, -0.1%, -0.6% and -0.6%. By the same token, the growth rate will be lower than recent official economic sector in general is expected to increase (0.6% � 0.7%). If we take into account the needs of the three main German economic situation and unemployment situation, can be determined, and Germany has experienced three consecutive quarters of economic stagnation and negative growth has entered a mild recession, a research institution in Germany, also holds this view. However, by the macroeconomic indicators in 1993 compared with the extent of the recession was mild in 1993. the three main growth in demand from the situation are not ideal. The first three quarters of 2001, accounting for two-thirds of Germany's GDP growth in private consumption is basically in weak condition, were 0.6%, 0.7% and 0.5%, lower than the previous year (0.9%, 1.7% and 0.8%), government slower consumption growth in household consumption expenditure, respectively, only 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3%. Growth in demand from the investment perspective, investment in equipment in 2001 are the first three quarters of negative growth, respectively, -0.4%, -0.6% and -0.4%, even though fourth-quarter data has not been announced, but still want to see their weak state. According to the German Institute of Economic Research recently by Fu willingness to invest German companies doing the survey, the inertia of decline in business investment in equipment still works, even into 2002, German companies are still bearish on the prospects for investment in equipment. From foreign demand, export demand growth last year, although better than the previous two, but the increase and the role is limited. Growth in the first three quarters last year were 2.7%, 2.4% and 1.7%, while imports increased 1.9%, 1.4% and 0.4%. Vertical view, also below last year's increase. Nevertheless, the import and export demand remains a positive factor in stimulating economic growth, or more difficult German economic growth last year. addition to economic stagnation, the present greater difficulties facing the German surge in unemployment,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 12 at the end, the number of unemployed has reached 3.96 million, the unemployment rate was 9.6%, with an average of 17.7% in eastern states, Western an average of 7.6%, greatly exceeded the government's regulation of the original goals, but they frequently heard the recent large companies fall in profits due to corporate downsizing have made the decision, such as Deutsche Bank, Siemens, BASF and Deutsche Telekom and many other companies. In contrast, the economic situation in Germany last year, the relative optimism is that the inflationary pressures it is not large (2.5%), mainly due to the relative stability of world oil prices this year. Stabilized at the end of the financial markets, the fiscal balance acceptable. Second, the Reasons of the 2001, German economic growth of 3.0% from last year (the last century, the highest point since the 90s) into mild recession and a sharp decline, mainly by three factors: First, aging; the second is external shocks; third cycle of transmission. aging. Aging itself reflects a country's economic development and long-term problem, it caused some sporadic short-term fluctuations of economic factors are different. It is often from a long period of economic growth and quality, development and stability of the coordination of long-term and fundamental impact play. Specific to the aging of German growth structure mainly refers to the aging of the industrial structure that is little changed over the years. For example, in the last century 90's, in the IT and network represented by the new economy has become the most dynamic source of growth, the United States and some European countries have to transform traditional industries or restructuring of traditional industries, the growth of its structure in Germany Although the adjustment, but in the new economic development was lagging behind the United States and Japan. Traditional industries such as Germany (cars, machinery, chemical and metallurgical, etc.) plus the proportion of the construction industry in the GDP, up to 30% or more and for years, but has been a pillar of economic growth and exports. In contrast, the U.S. is 26%, while the U.S. information industry has become more than the traditional sector the largest industry. According to a comprehensive development capacity index of information reports, listed in Germany only ranks eighth place, far behind the United States, Japan and some European countries. traditional industry has been facing in recent years, two pressure: First, constrained by market demand, that product supply is relatively unsaturated; Second, the industry profit margins become average. German national taxes plus high wage costs big, which is profitability of many large enterprises in Germany one of the reasons instability. In addition, the traditional industry is certainly the backbone of an industrialized country departments, but to sustain the competitiveness of the entities of the same industry, technical and financial support to have input. As a major industrial countries, in research and development (GDP,), Germany not only significantly lower than the United States and Japan, but also lags behind Sweden, Switzerland, Finland and South Korea and other countries. external shocks. If aging is a slow wander the German fundamental long-term economic reasons, then the external shock has become the economy into recession last year caused by the direct incentives. German economy as early as the fourth quarter of 2000 has been significant signs of slowing down. If the first negative growth in private consumption, industrial orders and business investment growth slowed down. The outside world that does not occur even if the Situation indicates that the German economy in the second quarter annual rate of 0%, while consumption, investment and exports are not ideal. As the German economy a high correlation with the international market, relying on European and American as the Germany's largest market, with Germany close to the four big countries, France, Britain, Italy and Spain are not as good as last year the economy, the German foreign trade for nearly 70% concentrated in EU-15 countries and the United States and Canada Mexico 3. Therefore, the first of the EU economy sluggish German economy. More critical is the Especially financial, insurance, aviation, tourism and other sectors to bring a series of negative effects, such as Germany and several major insurance companies to bear the burden of a huge amount of claims, the German stock market volatility after several consumer and investor confidence in Germany to bring the public directly or indirectly impact . cycle of transmission. On whether the German economy into recession cycles, the current economic community remained open. But the world economic slowdown, especially if economic stagnation throughout the EU and the United States, the transmission cycle of the Japanese economy is obvious. On the economic cycle and the impact of the world economy, the last century, was once the outside world 90 years ignored. At that time the region experienced two major recession and financial turmoil. A recession in the United States in 1991 and continued for a year, over the same period in Japan, Germany, France and even Britain but not by the United States is in a steady growth cycle. Another is the East Asian financial crisis, and many affected countries, but at the same time, U.S. economic growth was robust performance and become a focal point of world economic growth 1997-1998 One of the reasons there is no lack of new factors of economic expansion and the positive impact of international policy coordination, but it does give people an economic cycle, causing the appearance of sync. However, early last year, the world economy, especially the three major economies, has emerged cycles tend to synchronize the signs. Therefore, regardless of the impact of economic globalization, or coincidence, in 2001, the world's major countries have slow down and recession, the cyclical factor once again become the subject of attention. Because, after all, is to accelerate the cycle of economic globalization, one of the mediums simultaneously.