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AccuScore forecast: [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] injury hurts Texans
The Chargers are again the big losers in the AFC (down 25.2 percent). That said, they are still in contention to win the division at 42.7 percent. They opened as 77-percent favorites to win the division, so they are down nearly 35 percentage points since the start of the season. The Chiefs were the most improved team in AccuScore’s [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] preseason forecast based on forecasted wins vs. last year’s wins, and have lived up to expectations. They may have lost to Houston, but they now have the best chance of winning the AFC West by virtue of beating the Chargers in Week 1. The Chiefs lost in Week 6 but gained 2.1 points thanks to the losses by all the other AFC West teams.
The Patriots came back to beat the Ravens [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] and the Jets came back to beat Denver. These two teams, along with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, are AccuScore’s (and most experts’) top four teams in the league. They all have a better than 69-percent chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins have very impressive road wins over Minnesota and Green Bay, but unfortunately for them, home losses to division rivals are far more costly than road wins outside the conference. The Dolphins’ playoff chances dropped nearly 30 percentage points after losses to New England and Miami, and only improved 12.6 [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] percent after wins over Minnesota and Green Bay.
Houston may have come back to beat Kansas City, but its poor pass defense and season-ending injury to linebacker [link widoczny dla zalogowanych](notes) does not bode well for its playoff chances, which dropped slightly (-1.1 percent) despite its victory. The Colts should get revenge on Houston when they play in Indianapolis, and currently Indy is the favorite in the AFC South at 56.5 percent. Tennessee also has been impressive in recent weeks and while a Week 7 win vs. Philadelphia may not help its playoff chances that much (non-conference game), it will go a long way in our simulation computers to proving the Titans can beat the good teams in the league.
Simulation based forecasting and methodology: AccuScore uses past player-performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning its division,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] the Super Bowl.
AFC
The Steelers and Ravens are looking good. [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] Pittsburgh got Ben Roethlisberger(notes) back and leads the AFC in playoff percentage at 84.1 percent. The Ravens lost to the Patriots, but when you have as tough a schedule as they have had and are 4-2, you are in good position for at least a wild card. The Ravens did drop 10.6 points because they lost to a primary wild-card competitor, New England. The Bengals have quickly faded with just a 6.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. While a win at Atlanta may not boost the Bengals’ chances that much, they need to win to rejuvenate their season.